Is Putin's popularity real?

Journal article

Timothy Frye, Scott Gehlbach, Kyle L Marquardt, Ora John Reuter
Post-Soviet Affairs, vol. 33(1), 2017, pp. 1-15

DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2016.1144334

Cite

APA Click to copy
Frye, T., Gehlbach, S., Marquardt, K. L., & Reuter, O. J. (2017). Is Putin's popularity real? Post-Soviet Affairs, 33(1), 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2016.1144334

Chicago/Turabian Click to copy
Frye, Timothy, Scott Gehlbach, Kyle L Marquardt, and Ora John Reuter. “Is Putin's Popularity Real?” Post-Soviet Affairs 33, no. 1 (2017): 1–15.

MLA Click to copy
Frye, Timothy, et al. “Is Putin's Popularity Real?” Post-Soviet Affairs, vol. 33, no. 1, 2017, pp. 1–15, doi:10.1080/1060586X.2016.1144334.

BibTeX Click to copy

@article{frye2017a,
  title = {Is Putin's popularity real?},
  year = {2017},
  issue = {1},
  journal = {Post-Soviet Affairs},
  pages = {1-15},
  volume = {33},
  doi = {10.1080/1060586X.2016.1144334},
  author = {Frye, Timothy and Gehlbach, Scott and Marquardt, Kyle L and Reuter, Ora John}
}

Abstract

Vladimir Putin has managed to achieve strikingly high public approval ratings throughout his time as president and prime minister of Russia. But is his popularity real, or are respondents lying to pollsters? We conducted a series of list experiments in early 2015 to estimate support for Putin while allowing respondents to maintain ambiguity about whether they personally do so. Our estimates suggest support for Putin of approximately 80%, which is within 10 percentage points of that implied by direct questioning. We find little evidence that these estimates are positively biased due to the presence of floor effects. In contrast, our analysis of placebo experiments suggests that there may be a small negative bias due to artificial deflation. We conclude that Putin’s approval ratings largely reflect the attitudes of Russian citizens.